Update:
there seems to be some issues on the blog...i cant seem to load things up properly...
anyway...we have entered into retracement phase with 1st stop around 2480. We may see selective runs but do not over play on the upside.
bullish on the long term but bearish in the short term. there will be several bounce on the way down as traders scalp the "buy on support" speculators.
stay lean until market shows signs of bulls re entering.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
outlook remain neutral...
On friday, US unemployment data was better then forecast (9.6%) versus actual of 9.4%, leading to a surge in equities and USD. Is this a signal that the worst is over or is it just a temporary relieve. In my opinion, this could very well be a temporary relieve while a 2nd wave will bring unemployment into a double digit range.
In the upcoming week, there will be a meeting on monetary policy in US, focus will be on quantitative easing while interest rates expected to remain unchanged.
Index counters are hitting oversold region, a bullish close by HSI today will give STI a nice gap opening.
On friday, US unemployment data was better then forecast (9.6%) versus actual of 9.4%, leading to a surge in equities and USD. Is this a signal that the worst is over or is it just a temporary relieve. In my opinion, this could very well be a temporary relieve while a 2nd wave will bring unemployment into a double digit range.
In the upcoming week, there will be a meeting on monetary policy in US, focus will be on quantitative easing while interest rates expected to remain unchanged.
Index counters are hitting oversold region, a bullish close by HSI today will give STI a nice gap opening.
Friday, August 07, 2009
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Update:
hi guys, did not update my view for some time...
outlook should have been upgraded to "bullish" long ago...
some of you may be concern of the market being way over bought and whether a big correction may emerge... so how should we play such a market...
nobody can accurately predict turning points... the key to survival lies in risk management.
at such zone, we should reduce holdings but not completely close out positions in current speculative theme plays like property and commodities.
other areas to look into are defensive sector or laggards, like starhub, F&N...
a persuasive bull market will bring about new theme plays like china dual listing possibilities and inter market valuation gaps. counters like china milk and xlx have already taken the run... counters that fall in such theme will be like china hongx.
if you remembered, construction was a hot sector of the past. with this property upbeat and recovery hoo haa, will we see it come back to life?
in conclusion, it does not matter when the market will turn but how we allocate funds to suit the current risk level.
hi guys, did not update my view for some time...
outlook should have been upgraded to "bullish" long ago...
some of you may be concern of the market being way over bought and whether a big correction may emerge... so how should we play such a market...
nobody can accurately predict turning points... the key to survival lies in risk management.
at such zone, we should reduce holdings but not completely close out positions in current speculative theme plays like property and commodities.
other areas to look into are defensive sector or laggards, like starhub, F&N...
a persuasive bull market will bring about new theme plays like china dual listing possibilities and inter market valuation gaps. counters like china milk and xlx have already taken the run... counters that fall in such theme will be like china hongx.
if you remembered, construction was a hot sector of the past. with this property upbeat and recovery hoo haa, will we see it come back to life?
in conclusion, it does not matter when the market will turn but how we allocate funds to suit the current risk level.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Updates:
i am turning from "bearish" to "neutral" as we approach bounce point 1.
covered most of short positions...small portion will be stopped out upon any rebound.
defensive counters are holding on well like singtel, starhub, sph...
falcon energy have been generating volume which arouse my interest, a target range of 78-81c likely. Good support at 64c.
i am turning from "bearish" to "neutral" as we approach bounce point 1.
covered most of short positions...small portion will be stopped out upon any rebound.
defensive counters are holding on well like singtel, starhub, sph...
falcon energy have been generating volume which arouse my interest, a target range of 78-81c likely. Good support at 64c.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Notes:
US unemployment hit 9.5% dragging down equity. I am expecting a peak close to 10-12%.
crude oil weakness expected to continue towards 60$.
neutral on gold for the moment.
bullish on USDCAD likely to test 1.18
bearish on EURUSD likely to test 1.38
bearish on DJ likely to test 8000 levels.
bearish on STI likely to test 2200.
**You are either right or wrong. If wrong, do what you think is right instead of praying you are right.**
US unemployment hit 9.5% dragging down equity. I am expecting a peak close to 10-12%.
crude oil weakness expected to continue towards 60$.
neutral on gold for the moment.
bullish on USDCAD likely to test 1.18
bearish on EURUSD likely to test 1.38
bearish on DJ likely to test 8000 levels.
bearish on STI likely to test 2200.
**You are either right or wrong. If wrong, do what you think is right instead of praying you are right.**
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Update:
My view on STI remains at "neutral"
but the theme will change from "rebound" to "cautious".
The index did a nice rebound after my call on a rebound theme, but the problem is low volume buy ups. Implications? Index can easily retrace the whole rebound gains in very short period of time. I am NOT making a bear call, but rather choose to take profit on counters where volume sell downs are coming in (relative to buy up volume from the recent rebound). In order for STI to retest highs, volume buy ups have to enter, fast.
Marine stocks are starting to experience volume sell downs while commodities remains a relatively stronger sector in this play. I will observe the movements over the next few days to properly evaluate the next move.
i will prefer to go LIGHT on some commods in anticipation of a volume push up. Other possible riding sectors will be banks and props. Some funds can be moved towards defensive counters while gold will be another option.
Remember, we are moving from buy on rebound into buy on anticipation, so limit your risk.
My view on STI remains at "neutral"
but the theme will change from "rebound" to "cautious".
The index did a nice rebound after my call on a rebound theme, but the problem is low volume buy ups. Implications? Index can easily retrace the whole rebound gains in very short period of time. I am NOT making a bear call, but rather choose to take profit on counters where volume sell downs are coming in (relative to buy up volume from the recent rebound). In order for STI to retest highs, volume buy ups have to enter, fast.
Marine stocks are starting to experience volume sell downs while commodities remains a relatively stronger sector in this play. I will observe the movements over the next few days to properly evaluate the next move.
i will prefer to go LIGHT on some commods in anticipation of a volume push up. Other possible riding sectors will be banks and props. Some funds can be moved towards defensive counters while gold will be another option.
Remember, we are moving from buy on rebound into buy on anticipation, so limit your risk.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Monday, June 08, 2009
Update:
after my last call on STI from bullish to cautiously bullish, penny stocks made their last run and hot speculative counters seems to be constantly attacked by shortist. today, the bears finally took over after getting beaten repeatedly over the past few months, especially in the month of May.
today we witnessed general market weakness where majority of the counters made a turn, breaking short term support levels. This is a sign which we have not seen for quite some time through this intense rally starting from march 09.
i will be turning bearish on the index with 1st key support at 2200. Any rebound tomorrow should be capped at 2380 while a close below 2300 will bring about panic selling.
after my last call on STI from bullish to cautiously bullish, penny stocks made their last run and hot speculative counters seems to be constantly attacked by shortist. today, the bears finally took over after getting beaten repeatedly over the past few months, especially in the month of May.
today we witnessed general market weakness where majority of the counters made a turn, breaking short term support levels. This is a sign which we have not seen for quite some time through this intense rally starting from march 09.
i will be turning bearish on the index with 1st key support at 2200. Any rebound tomorrow should be capped at 2380 while a close below 2300 will bring about panic selling.
you like the feeling of going to Thailand? to China? to Malaysia? These are places where the Singapore currency is stronger and your purchasing power if higher too. Like buying stuff during the Great Singapore Sale? I do too.
However this Great Singapore Sale doesn't come every year.
Recent research has dug up another few gems. Its like shopping during Great China Sale. The ability to take advantage of both the purchasing power + further discounts. These are times when your portfolio can see in excess of 1000 lots. Normal days, if you see 100+ lots, you are super rich.
Cacola.
historical Hi: 0.575
historical Lo: 0.035
o/s: 345m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.10
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.16
market price as of June: 0.08
How often do you see companies selling below their cash valuation? Another gem in the making. Been accumulating this company's shares since sometime back when Mr Buan tipped me off on this company.
Media coverage? Go do a search, you will realise that several financial institutions are following this company.
Could be the next multibagger.
However this Great Singapore Sale doesn't come every year.
Recent research has dug up another few gems. Its like shopping during Great China Sale. The ability to take advantage of both the purchasing power + further discounts. These are times when your portfolio can see in excess of 1000 lots. Normal days, if you see 100+ lots, you are super rich.
Cacola.
historical Hi: 0.575
historical Lo: 0.035
o/s: 345m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.10
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.16
market price as of June: 0.08
How often do you see companies selling below their cash valuation? Another gem in the making. Been accumulating this company's shares since sometime back when Mr Buan tipped me off on this company.
Media coverage? Go do a search, you will realise that several financial institutions are following this company.
Could be the next multibagger.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
STI :
i am turning from bullish to cautiously bullish. break of 2300 tomorrow will invite shortist into the game.
many counters are showing weak candles, bringing their status from bullish to neutral. some have tipping candles which will be seen as reversal bars if the range fail to hold. sectors which remains strong are oil and marine related.
Ausgrp still looking strong with 60c as key support.
i am turning from bullish to cautiously bullish. break of 2300 tomorrow will invite shortist into the game.
many counters are showing weak candles, bringing their status from bullish to neutral. some have tipping candles which will be seen as reversal bars if the range fail to hold. sectors which remains strong are oil and marine related.
Ausgrp still looking strong with 60c as key support.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Update:
Singtel has been in consolidation since november 2008 while index components enjoyed more volatility by retesting 0ctober's low in march 09 followed by testing new high of 2283 last week.
STI hit major resistance @ 2250, i am expecting some pull back with 1st level support at 2080 followed by 1970.
With Singtel initiating a breakout from consolidation, i am anticipating a follow up to a target of $3.05. If this holds true, stock should not close below support of $2.70 (Key support @ $2.40). Furthermore, their defensive nature will lure money flow into this counter while other high beta components retrace.
Singtel has been in consolidation since november 2008 while index components enjoyed more volatility by retesting 0ctober's low in march 09 followed by testing new high of 2283 last week.STI hit major resistance @ 2250, i am expecting some pull back with 1st level support at 2080 followed by 1970.
With Singtel initiating a breakout from consolidation, i am anticipating a follow up to a target of $3.05. If this holds true, stock should not close below support of $2.70 (Key support @ $2.40). Furthermore, their defensive nature will lure money flow into this counter while other high beta components retrace.
Portfolio:
long Singtel @ $2.77/78
long SMRT @ $1.50/51, reduce position @ $1.51/55
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Many of us are not willing to spend on clothes on regular days cos there will be a day called "Great Singapore Sale". However when the Great Singapore Sales comes along, when Zara has a store wide 30% discount, many ppl still wait out for the 70% discount. When the 70% discount comes along, they hope that the closing down sales come along. Very soon, the discounts are over, and they will have to wait for the next year.
I believe that i don't have the ability to time the market. I've tried several times long ago, but consistently failed, thus i've given up. no persistence. lolz
Thus I just buy companies that i feel are cheap. When i say cheap, i mean relatively cheap. not as in absolute price.
Lets take a look at some of the analysis of the companies that i felt were cheap and thus i invested in:
C&G:
o/s: 468m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.17
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.25
market price as of Dec/Jan: 0.055
Highest price: 0.765
Lowest price: 0.045
Bargain issue. Classic.
cos we are using 30cents to buy a dollar. Just the cash alone. wide margin.
Decision: Buy + mai tu liao
markets in time to come will recognise the value in the company. takes time thou.
China Hong:
o/s: 2540m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.186
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.27
market price as of March: 0.125
Highest price: 1.45
Lowest price: 0.055
Bargain issue. Classic.
are they still cheap? i still think so.
China Milk:
o/s: 738.6m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.56
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.60
market price as of Dec/Jan: 0.41
Highest price: 1.63
Lowest price: 0.20
Bargain issue. Classic.
Also, take a look at its profit margin!! nearly 100%. kaoz! so, wack!
Recently i went into China Sky again.
here's the reason why...
China Sky:
o/s: 814.576m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.186
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.26
market price as of April/May: 0.170
Highest price: 2.74
Lowest price: 0.12
Bargain issue. Classic.
Markets now are erratic, take advantage of it. The liquidating value is a estimate. Just like you don't need to see a woman's i/c to know her actual age, just take a look at the number of rings around her neck and you will know roughly how old she is.
If there's a wide margin in the stock, we will be better protected and the room for appreciation is unimaginable.
Happy investing.
I believe that i don't have the ability to time the market. I've tried several times long ago, but consistently failed, thus i've given up. no persistence. lolz
Thus I just buy companies that i feel are cheap. When i say cheap, i mean relatively cheap. not as in absolute price.
Lets take a look at some of the analysis of the companies that i felt were cheap and thus i invested in:
C&G:
o/s: 468m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.17
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.25
market price as of Dec/Jan: 0.055
Highest price: 0.765
Lowest price: 0.045
Bargain issue. Classic.
cos we are using 30cents to buy a dollar. Just the cash alone. wide margin.
Decision: Buy + mai tu liao
markets in time to come will recognise the value in the company. takes time thou.
China Hong:
o/s: 2540m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.186
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.27
market price as of March: 0.125
Highest price: 1.45
Lowest price: 0.055
Bargain issue. Classic.
are they still cheap? i still think so.
China Milk:
o/s: 738.6m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.56
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.60
market price as of Dec/Jan: 0.41
Highest price: 1.63
Lowest price: 0.20
Bargain issue. Classic.
Also, take a look at its profit margin!! nearly 100%. kaoz! so, wack!
Recently i went into China Sky again.
here's the reason why...
China Sky:
o/s: 814.576m
(Cash - all liabilities) per share: 0.186
liquidating value per share: in excess of 0.26
market price as of April/May: 0.170
Highest price: 2.74
Lowest price: 0.12
Bargain issue. Classic.
Markets now are erratic, take advantage of it. The liquidating value is a estimate. Just like you don't need to see a woman's i/c to know her actual age, just take a look at the number of rings around her neck and you will know roughly how old she is.
If there's a wide margin in the stock, we will be better protected and the room for appreciation is unimaginable.
Happy investing.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
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