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Sunday, October 12, 2008

hi all,

general review:

the short selling band in US has been lifted on thurs.

in the current market situation, analyst will start to focus more on sustainability of companies rather then growth potential.
we saw ferro, but it is not going to end there. other counters with potential red flags are china energy, china fish, and SC global (depends on how they deal with their LT debts)

steel companies in china are delaying imports of iron ore from australia, impacting resource counters.

luxury sectors will be taking a hit, potential areas are time piece like hr glass, fj benjamin and sincere watch.

are reits save? high yield means defensive? in this market, reits are taken up not by investors, but rather speculators, giving them a stock's nature.
in japan, new city residence with a yield of 28% is the 1st reit to file for bankrupcy. take note.

morgan stanley hard to value assets have risen by 13%, many other financial insti might need to do a revaluation on assets which post a potential impairment risk.

do you still use PE ratio to value companies?? no, reason being the E, which has a high probability of being re rated down will cause a readjustment of PE to the upside.
same for NAV, a lot of assets will have to be revalued, giving your P/NAV a distorted reading.

shipping company : with slowing demand, orders cancellation cannot be factored out. when that happens, those companies will have no space to dock their ships.
imagine what they have to do with those ships.

sembcorp have invested in a major project of 1.7b, funding will most likely be from borrowings. concerns? there will be strains w/o doubt.

SG gdp fell 6.3% qoq.

Heiwa

http://83heiwa83.blogspot.com/

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