hi all,

reports above.

btw, as I stated about the possibility of ferro getting into funding issues few days ago, it did happen today. announcement attached above.

please be aware of potential red flags, another company will be hit soon.

general review:

the crisis in 1998 consist of 4 phase, -30% on asean currency hit, -30% on spread to N Asia, +43% on policy intervention, -46% on recession entering full blown phase.
bottom of this crisis technical targets:
DJI - 1st support 8800-9000, bottom 7416
S&P - 1st support 944, bottom 800
STI - 1st support 1800, bottom 1669
general crisis will make a 80% pull back for asia and 100% for DJ.

avoid property and financial stocks as loan growth expected to hit single digit next year with residential property price expected to dip 10% this year and 25% next year.

weak bio medical sector will take a toll on our performance.

water treatment companies with business in china will get hit going ahead with power tarrif doubling to 40rmb, making up 50% of total treatment cost of 80rmb kwhr

defensive play - comfortdelgro: they do not hedge oil price which result in better margin as oil falls, further more, costs are easily transferred, a ressesion cushion I will say

enjoy...

Heiwa

Source : UOB-KayHian
Coordinated Rate Cuts: Desperate Times Compel Desperate Action

· In an amazing effort to further elevate the status of collective international policy actions, six major central banks (BoC, BoE, ECB, Fed, Riksbank and SNB) decided to lower their policy interest rates by 50bps, respectively, on October 8 (the BoJ did not act but supported the action). Following the reduction, the individual policy rates are as follows: BoC at 2.5%; BoE at 4.5%; ECB at 3.75%; Fed at 1.5%; Riksbank at 4.25%; and SNB with a target range between 2% and 3%.

· Unfortunately, the joint monetary policy action also has drawbacks. Firstly, it could convey a sense of panic and confusion, which could potentially lead to a negative feedback in prices of riskier assets, partly because it might imply that the current situation is equally dire across these countries, and that investors could be instigated to shun risk exposures en masse. Secondly, policy rates globally are at different levels; therefore, the costs of rate cuts are not equally distributed (since the target fed funds rate is now closer to the lower-bound, the costs and implications of further reduction by the Fed are obviously greater than, for example, BoE). And if the target funds rate pushes against the lower-bound much sooner than expected, while the economy continues to founder, it could spark additional policy concerns. Thirdly, since the monetary policy transmission process in the US remains clogged at this juncture (in light of impaired market functioning and unstable financial institutions), the intended effects of policy easing could be fairly muted or completely contradictory. And if so, this could further reinforce the negative psychology in markets.

· The accompanying statement by the Fed essentially maintains the inclination to ease further at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29. Specifically, the Committee asserts that the unanimous intermeeting cut of 50bps (on both the target funds rate and discount rate) was "in light of evidence pointing to a weakening of economic activity and a reduction in inflationary pressures". The reference to inflation, which notes that the "decline in energy and other commodity prices and the weaker prospects for economic activity have reduced the upside risks to inflation", appears to be more toned down from Chairman Bernanke's remarks at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. The ominous emphasis on growth concerns combined with the repetition that the "Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed..." effectively leaves the door widely open for additional policy action. As such, I anticipate the target fed funds rate to be reduced by an additional 25bps to 1.25% at the October meeting, and another 25bps at the December 16 meeting to 1.00%.

A copy of the accompanying statement can be obtained from the following link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081008a.htm