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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

A snippet by CIMB:

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US equity technicals
Nobama rally - by Nigel Foo

Since 6 Jan, the DJIA has shed 1,092pts or 12% to bottom at 7,995pts last Friday. The fall was a five-wave decline, which is a sign that the "Obama" rally that most investors are expecting might not pan out this week. The DJIA's rebound could end between 8,412 and 8,541pts, followed by a sharp correction towards month end or early-mid Feb, depending on whether the wave "5" down leg or wave "b" is taking place. Both our preferred and alternative wave counts are still valid. If our preferred wave "5' has already started and assuming that wave "5" equals the length of wave "1", the DJIA could hit 6,600 before bottoming. The likely target for our alternative wave count is 7,320-7,449, with 7,449 indicating a bullish "double bottom" formation. This should be followed by a strong rebound in Feb, likely to be in the form of a late "Obama" rally.

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