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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Update...

  1. US – market rallied on confidence that actions will be taken to salvage situation
    1. Citigrp bailout – US$20b injection and US$306b to insure stressed assets
    2. Existing home sales fell 3.8% mom, <>
  2. MSCI – 4 counters will be deleted by today
    1. Kepland
    2. Yanlord
    3. Venture
    4. CCT
  3. $ flow from to Asia to US
    1. falling commodity and oil prices (priced in USD, inversely correlated with USD)

i. strong USD less $ to buy oil, deflation

ii. weak USD more $ to buy oil, inflation

    1. USD strengths (impact seem in recent sell off in Asian markets)
    2. US$/S$ <>
  1. STI support @ 1750
    1. Rebound target 1800-1900
  2. UOB fundamentally stronger trading @ 1.3xPB vs 14yr average of 1.8x
    1. Potential speculative play
  3. DBS has 25% of book as goodwill which is not valued in current market
    1. PB 0.7x with goodwill, higher if removed
  4. SIA downtrend yet to end with premium passenger volume falling 8%
    1. About 50% revenue contribution from premium
    2. 0.85x PB
  5. Short calls
    1. Citydev target $4.24 – cross Bollinger band
    2. Hyflux target $1.29 – MACD sell signal
  6. ML reduce target
    1. Capland target $2.14 vs $4.05
    2. Citydev target $5.86 vs $10.90
    3. Kepland target $1.02 vs $2.95
  7. Goldman reduce target
    1. Kepcorp $4.85 vs $6.40
    2. Sembcorp $2.50 vs $3.30
    3. Sembmar $2 vs $3
    4. Ezra $0.58 vs $1.04
    5. KS energy $0.57 vs $1

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