Update...

1. US – FED improved confidence but fundamental remains weak
1. FED commits $800b to improve liquidity and assist SMEs
2. 3Q GDP -0.5% worst since 2001 recession
3. consumer confidence improved and went above expectations as gasoline prices fell
4. goldman expects unemployment to hit 9% end 2009 vs 6.5% in oct 2008
5. Bellwether cisco to close most operations in US and Canada for 5 days to cut cost giving technology outlook a hit
2. Jade - avoid
1. FY08 loss of $39m, amounts to 2x market cap and similar to share capital of $43m
2. Negative operational cash flow
3. HG metal – not the right time
1. 4Q loss of $33m
2. negative operational cash flow for 4Q and FY08
3. 2x gearing and cash/ST debt is only 16%
4. plans to defer expansion plans implying room for downside
4. cerebos
1. FY08 profit down 4% yoy
2. Strong operational cash flow
3. Net cash, gearing of 0.27
5. venture potential yield play
1. support @ 2.85, PB 0.6x
2. strong core business and fundamentals
3. strong cash flow to support yields
6. singtel valuation attractive
1. upgraded by foreign house, been on the sell side of insti funds for past 9 months
2. investment holdings usually 20% premium over others but now gap has closed
7. switch from sembmar to sembcorp
1. sembmar pure offshore and marine likely affected by current economic situation
2. sembcorp bluechip and resilient with less downside risks

i. jurong island with upcoming plants by Exxon an Shell

ii. strong contracts in UK

1. Airline sector concerns
1. major airlines seeking gov aid from high cost and weak demand

i. china east air hit by fuel hedging losses speculated to be US$690m

ii. air china warned last Friday amounting to US$454m

iii. Cathay pacific, HK’s largest carrier warned of US$360m

iv. Potential impact on SIA

2. SIA negative outlook

i. Bangkok route halt due to security concerns

ii. tourist arrival to SG fell 8.1% oct yoy

2. Singapore market cheap?
1. 09 PE 9x vs SARs 13x vs Asian crisis of 11x
3. Target cuts
1. JP cuts CMT to $2.2 from $2.78 due to possible fund raising
2. UBS cut CCT to 63c from 73c on lower equity raising price
3. CLSA cut CCT to 95c from $1.55
4. CLSA cut suntec reit to $71c from $1.05
5. CLSA cut citydev to $6.31 from $7.71
4. Standchart rights issue may trigger concerns that DBS will follow
1. DBS tier 1 CAR lowest among 3 banks @ 9%, most affected if all CDO written down to 0
2. Temasek is the largest shareholders of both banks
3. 25% of book under goodwill
5. SG data total manufacturing fell 12.6% oct yoy
1. Biomedical fell 30.6%
2. Electronics fell 14%
3. Marine & offshore only growth engine but slowed rise 14.8%
6. HG metal falls on rights issue due to weak BS

Steel industry
-China steel corp, taiwan's biggest maker of metal to reduce prices by 23%
-weakness in demand seen as it was 3years since they last cut prices

Shipbuidling outlook
-Shipyards in China to reduce downpayments from clients from 70% to <20%
-New orders set to drop 42% this year
-Reduction significant but current issue is lack of demand
-Possible implications on higher default risks from clients impacting shipyards